6 July 26
The Ire of the World
I know it’s been said elsewhere, but as soon as I heard about Trump’s interference in the FIFA suspension of Balogun’s red card, I felt Pochettino should just bench him and kill the controversy. After all, the US men’s team had shown it could win without him; why not do it again?
Instead, this talented striker played today (ineffectively) against a well-organized Belgian team that had taken the bit in its teeth to fight back against the injustice of the world’s biggest bully bending the world’s most corrupt organization to his clueless will. The U.S. team fell apart, feeling the antipathy of millions around the globe, which isn’t really fair — I mean it’s not something they asked for, after all — but it felt like setting the football world to rights.
If Belgium plays like this against Spain as it played this morning, I fear for La Roja, but there are many hours between now and Friday. Reset the counter.
4 July 26
Here We Go
So not only are we now close to the round of 16 in the World Cup, the Tour de France started today with a team time trial in and around Barcelona. They’ve changed the rules a bit, so now it’s not the fourth cyclist to cross the finish line but the first in each team to set the time. Jonas Vingegaard is now in yellow; not sure how long he’ll keep it.
England-Mexico tomorrow. I think it will be very tough for England, even if they don’t in their own way as usual, because of the altitude and the home crowd. We’ll see.
3 July 26
Modelling the World Cup
I watched a YouTube video a couple days ago about developing a probabilistic model on who would win the World Cup. This video was from before the World Cup started, and the modelers have been updating their predictions as the tournament progresses. Right now, as we are about to start the Group of 16 matches, the model gives Spain a 23.6% chance of winning the tournament, and Argentina a 22.9% of winning it all.
One of the principles the modelers point out is that there is no canonical way to build these models. Different models will have different percent likelihoods right now, though I doubt anyone is giving Canada a higher chance to win the tournament right now than Spain. The World Cup is especially difficult to model, because matches between different national teams are few and far between, especially when they are in different football confederations. Take an example from Group L in our 2026 edition of the World Cup, the teams Ghana and Panama. These two teams had never played each other before. Moreover, there are few matches between the confederation Panama is in (CONCACAF) and the confederation Ghana is in (CAF); the network of matches connecting teams Panama with teams Ghana has played is pretty sparse. What is the probability Ghana wins the group match between the two teams, Panama wins the match, or there is a draw? (Ghana ended up winning the match with Panama 1-0 by scoring in the 95th minute.)
The world of football data analytics is vast but patchy at the same time. It is a global game, and consistency in global data does not exist. It is all a bit intimidating.
2 July 26
Where to Watch
One of the cool (and difficult) things about the World Cup this year is that it’s basically taking place in our time zone, even during my normal waking hours. This means I’ve seen a lot of matches and, let’s be honest, it’s too much. Many of them are at home on Telemundo, which is showing all matches in Spanish through Peacock and which has eschewed advertising during the commercial breaks, also known as Hydration Breaks which get booed loudly at every match and which Fox mutes and then jumps to a commercial.
But sometimes I want to be around people other than Numenius and the cats, and watching Spain win today was no exception. I took myself over to the Upper Crust Bakery where they are showing all the matches live during their opening hours (so no Mondays) and ran into some familiar faces. Retired university professors, people taking early or late lunch breaks, that kind of thing. (FIFA’s level of corruption extends to its contract with Fox, where it is stipulated that Gianni Infantino be shown at every match, where he is absorbed by the match and not looking at his phone or picking his nose, I learned today; one of my Upper Crust compadres compared him to a Bond villain; I retorted that he looks more like an Austin Powers one.) There are at least ten venues in town regularly showing matches as well as the huge space on G Street where you bring your own chair — apparently there were about 600 people yesterday to watch the USA vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina fixture. It’s a world party.
I’ve mentioned my personal rules with regard to who I support. Mexico-England on Sunday is going to be a very tough one for me — I think Mexico will win (ecstatic home crowd plus altitude give it the equivalent of two extra players) and I’d like to support them (they’ve never won it) but if England somehow pulls it out I won’t be distraught. There. I’ve said it.
30 June 26
Football Affiliations
It’s complicated. Here are my rules when I’m watching the World Cup (and I watch most of the matches, knitting furiously), in order of importance. (There will be rules conflicts of interest, which get resolved before each match, usually; I don’t normally switch sides halfway through if one side is clearly beating the one I’ve rooted for. Case in point: I wanted Japan to beat Brazil yesterday. They were having an off day, which is fatal in the knockout rounds. But I never stopped hoping they’d somehow draw level and go on to beat the five-time world champions.)
1. Support Spain. Always, no matter what.
2. Support the underdog, unless Spain is playing.
3. Support whoever is playing against the Netherlands. Even when Holland is the underdog.
4. No matter what happens, England will steal defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s the rules. It should make them the perennial underdog, but that’s not how they (or their fans) see it; they feel the cup is theirs by birthright. By this logic, rule #2 doesn’t apply to England.
5. Germany, no matter how badly they are playing, will almost always snag a win at the end. It’s the rules. Which makes any other team the underdog.
6. Support any African team, unless Spain is playing.
7. Support any team that has never won the World Cup, unless it’s the Netherlands.
8. If it’s a France-Brazil final, support Brazil. Sticks in my craw but there we are. This year, they are the underdogs.
23 June 26
Forty-Three Still At The Ball
In the World Cup we have made it through two of the three sets of group matches — already five of the forty-eight teams have been eliminated from advancing to the knockout stages of the tournament. I will reevaluate whether the expansion to forty-eight teams has been a positive change after it all concludes. The success of the wee island nation-state of Cape Verde (two draws against much stronger teams) has been a delight for all; on the other side of the coin today we got to witness Portugal thrashing Uzbekistan who, like Cape Verde, is also a World Cup debutante. Meanwhile England reverted to form and played to a 0-0 draw today. They are the record holder in 0-0 draws in World Cup matches, with 13.
I would really like to see a team win the World Cup who is not one of the eight who have won it previously. Of the strong candidates under this criterion I am pulling for Japan or Norway. Because the knockout phase starts this time with a round of 32, whoever wins the final will have to win five matches in a row. Chance may play a large factor, especially with the deviltry of penalty shootouts.
16 June 26
Nervous Energy
I’ve never been diagnosed with ADHD, but wouldn’t be at all surprised to learn it’s something I’ve lived with all my life. In some ways, it’s been something of a superpower. But it means that concentrating on just one thing seems impossible. And when it comes to listening or watching football, I have GOT to be doing something with my hands.
I have just entered the sweater pictured at right into our county fair, which takes place every August. I am planning to line it with silk, which will hide a lot of the mess caused by stranded colorwork (and make it much more pleasant to wear). There are now long sections that don’t require much concentration, making it the perfect World Cup knitalong.
Lionel Messi, nearly 39, just scored a hat-trick for Argentina, a massive feat for any player. I am not qualified to judge who the Greatest Player of All Time might be, but a lot of people who are think he’s it. That we have been alive to witness him AND Cristiano Ronaldo playing, egging each other on, is a privilege. (The game has changed a lot since Maradona and beyond him Pelé were in their prime, and such comparisons are sort of fruitless if entertaining.)
Lots more to go on this sweater but there’s a lot more football to follow over the next few weeks.
14 June 26
Mundial
I know I said I was going to boycott the World Cup. I’m not, it turns out.
ETA That means many hours per day at the moment. It’s not sustainable. But Spain is playing this morning….
11 June 26
And Then There Were Forty-Eight
The World Cup is now underway with two matches played today. This is not a World Cup I have much enthusiasm for, owing to the United States having alienated the rest of the world over the past year-and-a-half, including the other two host countries. Nevertheless, interesting storylines will emerge over the upcoming five weeks, I am sure.
Five weeks, not four as in the past. In its infinite wisdom FIFA has expanded the number of participating nations from thirty-two to forty-eight. In all likelihood this will make the group stage of the tournament less exciting since on average there is more of a range in quality from the strongest team to the weakest team in each group. FIFA may even continue in this direction: there is discussion of expanding the field to sixty teams for the 2030 World Cup which will take place in Morocco, Portugal, and Spain.
The nearby bakery will be showing the matches on a big screen outside on its patio. Pica was thinking of watching the first match there, but it was already 96° F outside at noon when it started, so that idea got nixed.
11 July 25
Una España Sin Brillo
I’ve been watching the women’s Euros as much as possible, even though watching them live is now difficult because the final matches of the group stages are being played at the same time. I did see Spain play Italy today, and the weaknesses in this Spanish team were on full display particularly in the first 30 minutes, particularly along the right flank. Other teams, including Switzerland who as hosts enjoy a strong home field advantage and who Spain will play next Friday, will be looking to exploit these weaknesses and not be intimidated by Spain’s dangers in the box.
The score should probably have been higher than 3-1 — Spain certainly made a lot of chances and a foul in the box which looked like a certain penalty wasn’t given — but Italy are a defensive wall and may be giving other teams ideas about how to handle the favorites.
What’s clear, though, is that the depth of Spain’s bench is very much in their favor, since they are able to rest key players. There have been injuries and illnesses that seem to be resolving at the right time, too.
It’s hard work but luck also plays a part in these things. In Spain’s case, the attacking skill is formidable especially in the younger players. They all combine to make Spain a hard time to beat this year, but it wouldn’t be impossible.