Awaiting A Moon Launch

The world is in even much more of a train wreck than when I first reported on this at the end of January, but there might be a launch to the moon tomorrow! At the moment we have 16 hours before launch of the Artemis 2 space rocket that will send four astronauts on a loop around the moon. It’s quite possible the launch will be scrubbed tomorrow due to a mechanical difficulty or weather (there’s a 20% chance of the latter), but the launch window for this month extends a few more day so they’d be able to try again the following day.

I will be following this actively tomorrow afternoon. Trump is scheduled to make some pronouncement about the Iran war in the evening — nobody knows what direction he’ll go on this — and is usurping all broadcasting for that; I will not be watching that. Ugh.

Wikipedia At Home

Both Pica and I had the Encyclopedia Britannica at home when we grew up, always at hand to dig into some topic of interest. Nowadays Wikipedia plays that role, the jewel of the Internet, a master reference only one bit of typing away. But what if…something happen to the Internet? A tech enclosure movement or collapse of the root level domain name system or rampant cyberwarfare?

It turns out one can download all of Wikipedia pretty easily. Since 2007 there has been a project called Kiwix that has created a system for taking extremely large knowledge stores and compressing them into single files that are easily viewed with special software offline.

This software is not difficult to run and is available for all major platforms. Their catalog lists 3458 different works that have been compiled into this file format in many different languages. I’ve had a go and have downloaded the complete English Wikipedia, Wikispecies, and resources from iFixit. The Wikipedia file is 115 GB in size and took several hours to download.

It’s a comfort having Wikipedia on my own hard drive. You never know.

The Ghost Airport of Aragón

There was an good piece yesterday about the epistemic collapse of the Iran war: nobody has any idea of what the facts are on the ground, and the information bubbles we all (separately) occupy are not communicating across to each other. Some interesting stories are emerging though, sometimes on the periphery of it all.

One of these stories concerns the airport of Teruel – Caudé in Aragón. This is not an airport for passengers. Rather, it’s a facility for aircraft maintenance and storage. When the war broke out, it began to receive big jetliners from the fleets of the Gulf States airlines to take refuge from the war. Planes from Qatar Airways, whose home base is Doha, are especially represented as part of the new arrivals, with about 20 of their widebody jets having come in by last Saturday.

For Fun Or For Beauty?

Thanks to a link on MetaFilter, recently I watched a masterful long-form video by jazz bassist and YouTuber Adam Neely entitled “Suno, AI Music, and the Bad Future”. Suno is the technology company that has become the biggest powerhouse in AI music. A usual workflow with Suno is to give it some text prompts describing the characteristics of the music you want and perhaps some lyrics and then Suno will take that and generate a fully instrumented song for you.

Needless to say, Neely is not a fan.

Commercial generative AI is bad in ways which are different from other disruptive music technologies of the past, like MIDI sequencing and samplers, because there is a sociopolitical agenda behind its adoption. This agenda will be bad for musicians, it will be bad for music lovers, and it will leave us feeling more alienated and alone…Like any culture war, it’s a distraction from the real war, the class war. You see, there is a class of techno-capitalists who are currently using generative AI as a means of wealth extraction. They do this by circumventing intellectual property laws…

Fifty-nine minutes into the video, Neely links AI music to technofuturist movements past and present. He discusses the Italian futurists, in particular Filippo Marinetti who in 1909 pens The Futurist Manifesto. Nine years later he goes on to write the original Fascist Manifesto. Today’s technocapitalists such as Marc Andreessen view Marinetti as a patron saint. Theirs is the same worldview that produces abominations such as Reflect Orbital’s plan.

Suno describes their core values as being “Music, Impatience, Aesthetics, and Fun”. Neely would replace these values with Service, Patience, Craft, and Beauty.

Neely believes generative AI will cause music to split into two different art forms, just as theatre and cinema are different but related art forms. These will be live and recorded music, and he has a lot of hope for the future of live music.

Delusions From Middle-Earth

Today I submitted a public comment to the Federal Communications Commission on the proposal from SpaceX to launch up to a million satellites for orbital data centers, which I blogged about last Friday. I am now working on the public comment for the Reflect Orbital proposal to put giant mirrors into space to light up the night particularly for use by solar farms. I retrieved the Reflect Orbital proposal documents from the FCC portal and was disenchanted to find that the name of their initial test satellite with an 18-meter mirror is EARENDIL-1.

This is a name that comes from Tolkien: Eärendil was a half-elf in The Silmarillion who bore on his brow a jewel — a Silmaril — that shone like a bright star. This leads to the question: why are so many tech bros obsessed with Tolkien?

A lot of people have commented on this trait lately. A writer named Samuel Arbesman compiled a list of all the tech companies he could find that have names from Tolkien (there are 22). In an essay entitled Mythic Capital, Lee Konstantinou discusses how Tolkien teaches a lot about capital and politics and the technoutopian vision of breaking free of all limits. In the New York Times Michiko Kakutani writes about how the traditionalism running through Tolkien appeals to the tech bros and that they are drawn to the themes of kingly and magical power rather than the gentle settled life of the hobbits.

It is interesting that when Tolkien first got popular in the late 1960s and early 1970s it was pulling in people mostly from the hippie counterculture. Times have changed.

But Pratchett doesn’t seem to appeal to the tech bros — I don’t see too many companies celebrating the cabbages of the Sto Plains for some reason.

The Destruction of the Night Sky

There are two proposals before the U.S. Federal Communications Commission right now that would do horrifying things to the night sky. Both are currently open to public comment through March 6 and 9, and I’m gearing up to submit a couple of comments. The FCC is the federal agency that regulates satellite launches in the United States, and they are now in the practice of rubber stamping an awful lot of these.

The first proposal is from a company called Reflect Solar that wants to put giant mirrors in space for the purpose of turning night into day for selected localities, in particular solar farms. They plan to start with an test satellite in 2026 with an 18 meter mirror, and then by 2030 have 4000 satellites in orbit at an altitude of 625 km. Eventually they imagine orbiting 250,000 satellites. The math for the amount of solar energy one can obtain this way absolutely does not work out, but even the 4000-satellite plan would be catastrophic for both professional and amateur astronomy. Visual astronomy would become an extremely risky activity, since accidentally glimpsing the reflected light in a telescope or binoculars could cause permanent eye damage.

Not to be outdone, everybody’s favorite archvillain Elon Musk is wanting to orbit up to 1,000,000 satellites for spaceborne AI data centers. There are presently 14,000 active satellites in space and low earth orbit is already getting crowded. One risk is Kessler syndrome — that is, collisions from space debris causing the generation of more debris in a chain reaction, rendering the entire orbital zone unusable. Another is impacts on atmospheric chemistry as tens of thousands of satellites burning up when they reenter may contribute to ozone depletion and climate change. Advocates of space data centers also tend to neglect the laws of physics. It is a lot harder to cool down a data center in space than on Earth, since due to the vacuum of space the only mechanism for heat transfer is radiation, not conduction or convection. (This is why vacuum thermoses keep their contents hot or cold.)

Both these proposals are now getting mainstream media coverage, such as in the New York Times and the Washington Post. The organization DarkSky International has a web page on how to comment on the proposals.

Back To The Moon

This upcoming journey doesn’t seem to be getting much attention now given the train wreck of current world events, but the United States is on the verge of launching four astronauts on a trip around the moon. This is the Artemis II space mission, which will start no earlier than February 6th. The launch vehicle arrived at its launch pad last week. There are monthly launch windows, so if the initial attempt has to be scrubbed, they will postpone to the next or subsequent months. The mission profile is similar to that of Apollo 8 in December 1968, although unlike in Apollo 8, the spacecraft will be sent on a “free return” trajectory to the moon (the spacecraft will not have to fire its engines to get back to Earth).

I am excited and nervous and will be following closely. 1968 wasn’t exactly a year of peace and harmony either, so there’s that.

The Memory Keeper

I’m continuing down my genealogical rabbithole and while reading up on WikiTree I came across a reference to an obscure but quite intriguing piece of software called The Memory Keeper. This is genealogical and historical research that is built on something called TiddlyWiki.

TiddlyWiki is personal wiki software that extremely cleverly functions entirely inside of a single HTML page. The individual wiki pages are units called “tiddlers” and the code in the HTML page sets up forms to edit and save the tiddlers. I have been using TiddlyWiki since 2017 to keep a research log for work. There is a substantial community around TiddlyWiki who have built many extensions and plugins for the system.

Memory Keeper consists of a set of these plugins and templates that have been organized around genealogical and historical research. It is not meant as a replacement for traditional genealogy software but rather to help in the research process. The trouble with most genealogy software is that the software typically is good at organizing the results of the research (individuals, their relationships in families, events, places, and sources and citations) but the software isn’t really a place to record one’s working notes. Nowadays there are many software systems for taking non-linear notes (in addition to TiddlyWiki, systems like Zettlr, Obsidian, and Scrivener come to mind). What Memory Keeper does is marry the two types of software, providing fields for genealogical data while allowing for non-linear wiki entry linking.

I’ve been testing Memory Keeper out these past couple of days and I think it will be very useful. I’m using Hosea Curtice as my test case. Here is an illustration. There is a note in the published genealogy for the Curtice family that he served in the French and Indian Wars and that lists the captain commanding his company. I easily look up what company this was, but this leads into researching the campaigns of this company and its regiment. Traditional genealogy software will not have fields to store that information, but this is ideal for a wiki-based system.

My previous work with TiddlyWiki was not very sophisticated, but I see lots of potential for Memory Keeper, particularly around keeping track of geographies in personal historical research.

Epistemological Debt

There is a concept in software engineering called technical debt. Basically, this is something that accrues when taking shortcuts in building a software system. You solve the problem that is immediately at hand, but in so doing you neglect to think through edge cases and these come back to haunt you as use of the system expands and additional pieces get built out.

I think something analogous though more sinister occurs when working with large language models (e.g. ChatGPT and its rivals) which are the core of the AI boom. I’m calling this “epistemological debt”. LLMs are by design extremely good at returning plausibly sounding text, outputs that look correct on first glance but often contain some inaccuracies. For example, using AI-based transcripts and summaries of meetings are now commonplace: this is a standard function in Zoom these days. But what happens when the summaries get saved and become the official record of the meeting without anybody checking the generated text for the inaccuracies? Given that people are only getting more and more busy one suspects these failures to review happen all the time. The inaccuracies start to accumulate, and nobody can figure out what is truth and what is not.

On Painting and Thought

I’m continuing to explore sketching with my new Neocolor II crayons, and here is a painting I did today of one of the Sugar Bee apples from today’s grocery shop run. I’m starting to learn how the Neocolors work as their own distinct medium. They go on the paper very smoothly — it’s a wax crayon — and it’s easy to spread the pigments around with a wet paintbrush. Once the paper is dry again, you can draw on it with more crayon in another layer. I also picked up a trick from a video about drawing birds with Neocolor IIs. The artist in this video uses a plastic palette with a rough surface. After drawing on the rough surface with a crayon, one can pick up the pigment directly with a wet paintbrush, thus turning the crayon into what is effectively watercolor paint. This can solve some problems posed by only using the crayons directly on the paper, such as being able to create a smooth wash, or being able to paint details with a fine brush. I made up an instant rough palette surface by using steel wool on a yogurt container top, and tested this approach out.

It is interesting that learning how materials behave — in this case a new art medium — is as far as I can intuit is the domain of non-linguistic thought. When I wanted to add yellow spotting on top of the red of the apple, I just knew that my little rounded flat travel brush would be a good tool for this. I don’t believe language had anything to do with this thought.

This is a consequential realization because the trillions that are being invested right now in AI are being built for the most part on the manipulation of language. To the best of my knowledge the heart of today’s AI boom is large language models (LLMs). There was a piece published in The Verge today about how this is likely a philosophical error. The article is entitled “Large language mistake” and has the subheading “Cutting-edge research shows language is not the same as intelligence. The entire AI bubble is built on ignoring it.” The article draws upon a perspective piece published in Nature last year entitled “Language is primarily a tool for communication rather than thought”, arguing its case from contemporary neuroscience and linguistics. I’m not expecting AIs to know how to paint watercolor anytime soon.